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100 or 500: How seat calculation method could decide Thai election winner

100 or 500: How seat calculation method could decide Thai election winner

13 Sept 13:46 Key points summarised by AI
  • Parliament approved a change to calculate party-list MP seats by dividing total votes by 500 instead of 100, a move expected to significantly impact the next general election.
  • The new '500' formula benefits smaller parties by drastically reducing the votes needed to win a seat (e.g., 70,000 votes), while simultaneously limiting the chances of large parties, like Pheu Thai, achieving a landslide victory.
  • Analysts suggest the ruling coalition likely pushed for this change to prevent a dominant win by the opposition Pheu Thai party and to bolster smaller, potential allied parties in a future government.
  • Pheu Thai plans to challenge the revised election bill in the Constitutional Court, arguing it is unconstitutional as it deviates from the charter's principle of proportional allocation for party-list seats.
  • The alteration is predicted to create a fragmented political landscape post-election, with a government likely composed of numerous small and medium-sized parties, potentially leading to instability and increased political bargaining.
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