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‘Super’ El Niño doomsday prediction for agriculture by Krung Thai Research

‘Super’ El Niño doomsday prediction for agriculture by Krung Thai Research

10 Sept 13:06 Key points summarised by AI
  • Krung Thai Research Centre forecasts a 'super' El Niño will inflict over 110 billion baht in damage to Thailand's agriculture and cause a 0.51% GDP contraction in the worst-case scenario.
  • The increasing frequency of severe El Niño events (every three years) prevents agricultural recovery, with impacts anticipated from late this year into early next.
  • Major crops like rice, sugarcane, and tapioca face substantial output reductions, with rice alone potentially losing 9.74 million tonnes, valued at 75 billion baht.
  • The agricultural sector, a heavy water consumer, is vulnerable due to critically low reservoir levels and farmers' reduced fertilizer use, further exacerbating production declines.
  • Recommendations include upgrading risk management, farmers adopting drought-resistant crops, and the government developing early warning systems and climate risk databases for long-term resilience.
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