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Consumer confidence rises, businesses remain wary

Consumer confidence rises, businesses remain wary

11 Sept 07:31 Key points summarised by AI
  • Thai consumer confidence improved for the first time in four months, reaching 50.7 in June, fueled by declining global oil prices and the government's 'Thai Chuay Thai Plus' stimulus scheme.
  • Despite consumer optimism, business confidence continued its four-month decline to 41.4, as entrepreneurs report the stimulus has not significantly boosted sales or offset skyrocketing operating costs, especially for SMEs.
  • The economic recovery is characterized by K-shaped growth, benefiting only sectors like AI and electronic goods, while failing to trickle down to SMEs and maintaining a persistently low employment rate.
  • Future economic growth, projected at 2-2.5%, hinges on sustained government stimulus, stable energy prices, and the de-escalation of Middle East conflicts, with a potential for 2% growth if conditions remain favorable.
  • While current US actions against Iran are not expected to push crude oil prices past $80/barrel, a prolonged conflict could escalate prices to $90-110/barrel, potentially limiting Thailand's growth to below 2%.
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